Why the 2020s Belong to Quantum Computing

When was the day that quantum became normalised? ‘Quantum’, as a modifier within a sentence, has typically denoted something entirely beyond the realm of ordinary comprehension — the demesne of cats at once undead and unliving, of profound theoretical breakthroughs regretted, of keys to new dimensions. Sat on the lip of the 2020s, however, it is both exciting and oddly disconcerting to discover that quantum, such a synonym for the terminally unpredictable, has become a sure shot, an all-but-safe bet. Or, at least, quantum computing has. Since the 1990s it has been one of the most anticipated tickmarks on the developmental technological calendar. Now, we are passing between decisive phases in the lifecycle of this unique branch of computing. No longer merely a theoretical preserve, or a lab-bound pursuit, quantum computing is now a major channel of investment for large companies, small companies, VCs, academic institutions, and states. More and more, we are finding applied usage for the prime descendant of the classical computer; to the extent that, come the end of the 20s, quantum computing might be feasibly considered the decade’s definitive technology. But why? And how? What Are Quantum Computers? Quantum computers, and quantum computing, make use of quantum phenomena to execute processes faster. ‘Classical’ computing processes information through regular binaries, often colloquially referred to as ‘0s and 1s’. Quantum principles like superposition (wherein a particle exists in multiple quantum states simultaneously, instead of in one place and state) and entanglement (wherein multiple particles share spatial proximity in such a way as understanding the nature of one divests greater understanding of the other, or others), on the other hand, can be used to allow a computer to process beyond regular binary principles. The basic unit of quantum computing is, therefore, not the bit — a value set to 0 or 1, then arranged into long denotative strings — but the qubit, a value that can be both 0 and 1 simultaneously. Special kinds of atoms that can entertain such two-way states, like “ions, photons, or tiny superconducting circuits”, are therefore the building blocks of quantum computing. The quantum computer reads the degree to which a given qubit is ‘0’ and how much of it is ‘1’. This is often mapped out on a sort of qubit ‘globe’, whereon one point on the globe denotes the quantity of ‘0’ and of ‘1’ that the qubit possesses. To this end, you might more easily think of a value of ‘0’ being represented by the globe’s latitude and a value of ‘1’ by its longitude. Once the ‘coordinates’ of the qubit, and others in the string, have been determined, the computer can proceed with the function denoted. Our present computing models were founded on machines essentially designed to make calculus more straightforward — despite our almost deific conception of computing intelligence, the classical computing model is not necessarily as well-optimised for certain among the other tasks we now seek to use it for. As put in a recent report by Morgan Stanley, “While the classical computer is very good at calculus, the quantum computer is even better at sorting, finding prime numbers, simulating molecules, and optimization, and thus could open the door to a new computing era.” Quantum computing does not concern one single computing model. There are a variety of viable methods of quantum computing, including via quantum gate array (otherwise known as the quantum circuit), one-way, adiabatic, and topological methods. The adiabatic model is one of the most-implemented at present, and best for solving optimisation problems, though it cannot thoroughly outstrip a classical supercomputer in performance. The gate array model, the other most-implemented model to this point, is more powerful but considerably more difficult and expensive to build. Just as there are multiple quantum computing models, there are an array of floated physical realisations of quantum computers. These include the use of superconductors, trapped ions, linear optics, and even the Bose-Einstein condensate we saw be momentously recreated a couple of months back on the ISS. Building a Qubit For anyone who’s sat with a laptop straining through activity, and burning a hole through their trouser-leg in the process, it may come as a surprise to discover that quantum computers operate at very low temperatures. Colder temperatures, in fact, than can be found in the vacuum of space. Qubits, however powerful, are delicate things, and can be disturbed from their course very easily by any number of complicating elements, heat included. In order to make one of these fine, profound things, you need first an atomic or subatomic substance capable of sustaining a coherent quantum superposition between two states. There are a number of ways of doing so. Cosmos magazine reported that an Australian team led by Michelle Simmons at the University of New South Wales created atomic qubits by placing a single phosphorus atom on a silicon chip, determining the position of the resulting qubit in the crystal lattice from its quantum spin information. You could also run a current through a superconductor, and chart the resultant superposition. An additional means of creating qubits is to dislodge an electron from an atom, thereby making an ion. This ion is then held captive by electromagnetism, and lasers fired at it to provokes changes in quantum state. By such a means, you have a ‘trapped ion’ quantum computer. Why Quantum Computers? It all sounds perfectly impressive, all quite nice — but what takes quantum computing from being blarney-exclusive of the theoretical-scientific community, and into blarney-incipient of the world of applied science, is the vast range of possibilities in use that a quantum computer possesses. Having been freed from the restrictions of binary processing, quantum computers are able to move through operations at an exponentially faster rate than a regular computer, all the while using considerably less energy. This gives quantum computers a tremendous implementation advantage over regular computers — for instance, being able to solve more difficult NP-complete problems in a fraction of the time it would take a classical computer — and that’s before you even get to specific use-cases. “The advent proper of quantum computing does not sound the death knell for classical computing.” It should be said — the advent proper of quantum computing does not sound the death knell for classical computing, anymore than the advent of quantum physics rendered all the gains of classical mechanics moot. As in science, quantum computing is merely poised to succeed, and spectacularly so, in the realms where the classical falters. Consumers need not fear a mass-obsolescence of their gear; developers need not be concerned, if any were or continue to be, about the outmoding of their skills. Just as we’ve observed limitations in the powers of classical computers — to optimise, to simulate, to factorise — quantum computers will have weaker areas of their own, including in such everyday tasks as emailing, and the creation and use of documents. Just as a society entirely made up of professionals, and no tradespeople, wouldn’t get very far, the profundity of quantum computing is not the answer to each and every one of our needs and problems. It stands a good chance at solving quite a few of them, however. All Vectors to Brace Position Quantum computing has progressed relatively rapidly as a field, beginning ostensibly with Heisenberg’s coining of the Uncertainty Principle in 1927. Its mythological phase was announced via Richard Feynman’s challenge at an IBM/MIT conference in 1981, and the field enjoyed its first practical breakthrough in 1994, when Peter Shor demonstrated that a quantum circuit could factor primes exponentially faster than a classical computer. Many years hence, quantum computing is a fixture of interest for large corporations (IBM), specialist start-ups, and, increasingly, the public sector. States are investing billions of dollars in quantum technologies. That’s because, from policy creation to data analysis, and all the way out to some of the most fanciful reaches of experimental physics and chemistry, this new technology will have a pronounced effect. Chemistry, Cybersecurity & Search You may already have begun guessing which industry vectors are most likely to be upended by a coming quantum revolution — it’s a good bet to suggest that any industry whose bread and butter is composed of complex logical problems will be among the first and most dramatically affected. Cybersecurity, for one, will be changed beyond much present recognition by a widespread adoption of quantum computing. There is some thought even now that as a society we are relatively haphazard when it comes to taking steps to secure ourselves online, even aside from those whom do less than is strictly advisable in the cause of this effort. This impression is likely to be compounded by a post-quantum-computing status quo. Rules of encryption will be rewritten overnight. There is no extant factorisation-based cryptographic system that a quantum computer could not break with contemptuous ease. Cryptographic systems will, as a result, presumably get more creative (using more problem- or lattice-based encryption), and we may see a move to more secure quantum-based encrypted systems for storing valuable information and warding against hacking. Likewise, any field of technology where optimisation is important will undergo pronounced changes following the adoption of quantum computing. No database is a match for the speed of processing native to a quantum computer. Quantum search, facilitated by quantum algorithms like Grover’s algorithm, allow a more comprehensive return of pertinent results from a database, in fewer queries of that database, than could ever be accomplished by a classical computer. As an unsurprising result, Google has proven one of the keenest parties when it comes to investing in research into the possibilities of quantum computing. Of course, quite another set of possibilities in innovation and research will be made possible by quantum computing owing to the fact that, with them in our hands, we will have an authentic environment in which to run quantum simulations. Trying to simulate quantum environments classically is inexact and highly inefficient at best and, as one’s experimental ambitions grow, impossible at the most interesting degrees. Given access to a real quantum computing environment, capable of accurately modelling and simulating quantum conditions, we will see exponential gains made in the kinds of chemistry and nanotechnology which rely on better understandings of quantum mechanics. The Machine Learning Question Whenever developments in technology are the subject of discussion, everyone wants to know — “What is this new gear’s effect on machine learning likely to be?” And, if your inquisitor is among the more enthusiastic variety, “Is it likely to destroy us all?” Well, machine learning, as conventionally understood, will be introduced to a new era by quantum computing — it is already the subject of major initiatives to demonstrate quantum supremacy[2]. An algorithm for integer factorisation, which is already understood to be a preserve exclusive to quantum computing, will instantly obsole any conventionally held understandings of the limits of the systematic intelligence, even against unintuitive patterns, which can be achieved by a computer. The sheer volume of data which a quantum computer can get through disposes it well to machine learning. Non-supervised learning and reinforcement learning will almost certainly accelerate in development thanks to quantum technologies. As we’ve seen, quantum computers can support considerably more ambitious algorithms than classical computers, which, as a result, are coming near to exhaustion of their possibilities, as far as the interests of certain fields run (including fields “pharmaceutical, life scientific and [financial]”). Communication via the Flaws of Diamonds Quantum computing doesn’t begin and end with the quantum ‘desktops’[1] of the future — information networks based on quantum phenomena are high up on the list of desirable outcomes from the next chapters of quantum computational research. In accordance with what we just saw vis-a-vis quantum cryptography, any quantum internet would be considerably faster than the classical kind. It would also be more secure; after all, as this report by Princeton notes, “[a]ny attempt to eavesdrop on[a quantum internet] transmission [by hackers] will perturb its state.” As we noted above, the principles of quantum entanglement are central to the feasibility of a quantum computer and a quantum internet. One qubit being unlawfully observed or disrupted? You’ll have an equivalent ‘twin’ qubit that can tell you all about it. In a quantum network, the state of one qubit will tell you a great deal about others with which it is entangled, no matter the physical distance between them. “In a quantum network, the state of one qubit will tell you a great deal about others with which it is entangled, no matter the physical distance between them.” One of the suggested means by which a quantum internet might be built is quite stirring to the imagination. It’s the work of Princeton’s assistant professor of electrical engineering, Nathalie de Leon, who believes that the key to this new kind of informational network is held in the body of diamond. To be more specific, in the flaws of a diamond. The colours we see in the sparkle of a diamond are in fact flaws in the body; but, with a slight modification to their chemical makeup (replacing two carbon atoms with a silicon atom), these regions of flaw are made into perfect photon receptacles. Perfect, in other words, for the transmission of information within a quantum internet. We could in an imaginable future find ourselves communicating on a quantum net, via the flaws of diamonds. Aside from speed and security, a quantum internet could represent a considerable energy saving, owing to the lower rate of consumption by quantum computers. The Internet at present uses approximately 10% of the world’s total electricity, and more if you factor in the additional energy costs of data centres and the cloud. Not only do single quantum computer units use less energy than their classical counterparts; they have scope for architecture and a cloud system of their own, both of which could represent small but direct reductions of the global-digital carbon footprint. Quantum Disruption There is, as we’ve seen, ample disruptive potential in quantum computing as a distinct field of technology — and it seems as though a vast amount of that disruption will be additive and positive, increasing overall knowledge capital and augmenting existing processes and infrastructure instead of sweeping it away. It is harder to imagine any region of scientific and technological inquiry having a higher barrier-to-start-up-entry than quantum computing. Nevertheless, there are a number of promising outfits with quantum computing applications at their core, all of them heavily backed by venture capital. Rahko Rahko have set out to go about “solving chemistry with quantum machine learning”. Comprised of a team based in London, Rahko’s quantum machine learning platform is focused on the creation of applied and commercially purposeful insights into quantum chemistry. They raised £1.3M seed from Balderton in their latest funding round. Quantifi Quantifi, founded in New York, sit at the further frontier of what’s commercially possible with quantum computing solutions, as regards risk and deal analytics. Crypto Quantique Crypto Quantique are attempting to pre-empt the seismic shifts in crytographic best practices by developing an end-to-end quantum IoT security platform that is, they suggest, all but impregnable. Further Down the Quantum Tunnel As fabulous as many of these applied uses of this fantastic new technology are, I would be remiss were I to suggest that looking further afield, and permitting ourselves some slightly more fanciful speculation about what quantum computing advances will bring, is anything other than the most fun part of any article like this one. What’s more, given quantum computing technology has such a broad church of potential uses, we have even freer license to speculate on things to come in a future full of quantum technology. There are hosts of medical applications for quantum computing. More detailed models of molecular structures will be built; new pharmaceutical products created thereby; and, it’s as likely as not, long-standing illnesses cured at last. We might see erosion-free industrial process; the addition of sufficient mile-range to make electric cars not merely an option, but the option; Looking into somewhat darker harbours, there have been suggestions in some quarters that quantum computing might be purposed as a kind of natural enemy of blockchain, though the increase of institutional interest in blockchain, which is rising almost as fast as interest in quantum computing, may put paid to this by itself. Nevertheless, major blockchain initiatives like cryptocurrency could be made extinct through security compromise — in the words of representatives of UK cybersecurity firm Post Quantum, bitcoin is “not quantum computer proof.” Quantum computing is also of particular stated interest to military institutions, including the U.S. Airforce. Speaking to SpaceNews, Michael Hayduk, chief of the computing and communications division at the Air Force Research Laboratory approvingly adjudged quantum computing “a very disruptive technology.” Quantum computing could be used to perfect the synchrony of weaponry; as the Chinese example proves, it can also be used to produce unhackable satellites. Looking more broadly still, one thing that quantum computing widely adopted does promise is pace. Pace of learning, pace of processing, pace of optimisation — well used, such rapid mastication of such vast troves of data will indubitably lead to greater innovation. Indeed, it would stimulate a race of innovation, one whose dimensions are tailored precisely to the degree of competitive implementations of quantum technologies enacted by rival commercial actors, sector-by-sector. “Quantum computing could initiate a different kind of ‘quantum supremacy’, geopolitical in nature, that few nations will wish to be on the receiving end of.” As it is, technological innovation is already proceeding rapidly towards a kind of actuarial escape velocity. As China’s own pace of innovation accelerates in tandem with the global west, even more pressurised incentive is created to continue innovating. Given quantum computing will only accelerate the gains of material science even faster and further, it’s possible that it will create nightmares of scaling, and of the industrial-scale deployment of new technologies. This bottlenecking may, inasmuch, create a huge incentive for greater international collaboration. There is already one mooted and contested notion of quantum supremacy; there might, in the instance of scale-adoption of quantum computing, come the possibility of a more practical quantum supremacy, geopolitical in nature, that few nations will wish to be on the receiving end of. The Trouble with Quanta That’s not to say that quantum computing is a sure-shot for the near future, though it does seem progressively more likely that we’ll see the method graduate from the emergent stage into tackling classically impractical problems — like ultra-rapid integer factorisation, or elite cryptography — in the next decade at least. Stability There is the potential for instability in quantum processes, as qubits are liable to profound distortion by only minor complications in the context in which they work. The collective attempt to find a panacea for this issue is known as quantum error correction. Decoherence[3] is, understandably, a big problem for particles (or, for that matter, human-sized congregations of particles) that insist on occupying multiple states of being at once. This represents a potential compromise to the utility of even the most powerful of quantum computers. One of the primary means of combatting decoherence, which is to some extent inevitable at some stage of a quantum event, is to have quantum gates faster than decoherence time —and as we observed earlier, quantum gate models are the most demanding and expensive to construct and maintain. Similarly, any functional quantum computer would have to physically scale to accommodate the number of qubits, and furthermore would have to develop a rubric by which qubits could be ‘read’ for the operative functions they denote. Not an intrinsic, but an infrastructural ‘drawback’ of quantum computing is the degree of platform transitioning and upgrading it will oblige of service providers across the internet. A company able to develop and scale a solution based on quantum computing — whether in cybersecurity, finance, instance messaging or data science — would rapidly develop an almost unimpeachable advantage over its classical competitors, though doing so would be difficult. The transition would have to be managed and, one would hope, reasonably cooperative. Of course, developed for political ends, a quantum computer that does not have to worry about non-quantum defence mechanisms standing in its way could make for a rather potent weapon. In a Super Position The panorama visible at the vanguard of developments in quantum computing is the kind liable to make your mouth dry. Quantum computers come to us not, in the manner of classical computers, as portals to a strange new world, but rather one which allows us to take our present world in a revised definition. Of the manifold issues, sociopolitical and ecological, facing the world at present, some of which can be partially attributable to the principle, as opposed to the fact, of innovation[4], there are two ostensible solutions — to moderate ourselves out of the hole we’ve dug for ourselves, or innovate out of it. The speed, efficiency and cleanliness by which quantum computing is capable of doing its work makes the latter option, by far the most reconcilable to this most sybaritic and consumptive of times, more palatable. [1] Many experts find it unlikely that quantum computing will have everyday home uses — your laptop or desktop is unlikely to feature a quantum engine. [2] Quantum supremacy can be defined as a kind of proof of a quantum computer’s performance, wherein it completes a function or operation that no classical computer could do, or could do in a feasible amount of time. For quantum researchers, instances of quantum supremacy proven are rather like Pieces of Eight. [3] Decoherence is a form of quantum noise, quantum noise itself pertaining to an uncertainty of a physical quantity’s quantum origin and, therefore, its nature. As a discrete kind of quantum noise, decoherence concerns a disrupted wave function — qubits must remain in a consistent wave function (i.e. must remain coherent) in order to be computational intelligible. [4] That’s to say — an unduly worshipful approach to innovation-as-end-in-itself, which privileges disruption and excess as proof of concept, instead of innovation considered as a means to a practicable end.